1	Update on All-breed Model, Fertility, Genomics
2	Test Day Model - Potential Benefits Increased accuracy of evaluations Account for lactation curve differences Account for genetic differences by parity Evaluate persistency, rate of maturity Include milk-only records if multi-trait Possible earlier selection of bull dams Promote as state-of-the-art system Management effects more accurate Could provide to DRPCs and herd owners
3	All-Breed PTAs – March Test Run Genetic correlations mostly same JE increase .02 for PL and .01 for SCS BS decrease .01 for fat and SCS AY increase .01 for PL USA bulls in top 100 differ little Numbers are averages across all scales JE improve for SCS, fat (26 vs 25) JE decline for milk, protein (59 vs 62) BS decline for yield (10 vs 15) HO improve for yield (17 vs 16)
4	Jersey and Swiss PTAs Base cow means changed little Base cow SD changed little Top bulls for protein dropped by ~9 lbs, bottom bulls dropped by ~4 lbs in both breeds Unknown parent grouping, heterosis may be responsible
5	All-breed Trend Validation 85 tests, 6 were significant (.05) None significant for milk or SCS 1 of 15 for fat and for protein 2 of 15 for PL and for DPR Increase in DPR repeatability made trend more negative, helped tests
6	DPR Results – March Test Run Holstein genetic correlations
7	DPR - Top 100 bulls Born in last 12 years, March 2007 test run
8	Bulls to Genotype 60,000 SNP Project Choose HO bulls with semen at BFGL Genotype 1777 proven bulls Born 1994-1996 with >75% REL NM Plus 172 ancestor bulls born 1952-1993 Predict 500 bulls sampled later Born 2001 with >75% REL NM Include other bulls in gap years? Born 1997-2000 (proven) or >2002 (waiting)
9	Birth Years of Bulls to Genotype
10	Contributors of DNA 500 CDDR bulls to predict, born in 2001
11	Potential Results Simulation of 10,000 SNPs QTLs normally distributed, n = 100 Reliability vs parent average REL 58% vs 36% if QTLs are between SNPs 71% vs 36% if QTLs are located at SNPs Higher REL if major loci and Bayesian methods used, lower if many loci (>100) affect trait
12	Alleles Shared by Sibs
13	Reliability from Full Sibs Marker and QTL positions identical, sib REL = 99%